What holds for Latvia in a near future?

A month has left till the Saeima elections in Latvia.

The current ratings show that the United List (AS) has gained significant approval mainly do the new Prime Minister Andrejs Kulbergs who since his rise to power in May, has become popular with his open style of communication, in heavy contrast to ex Prime Minister Evika Siliņa who often handed herself like a duchess. Still during these few months, Kulbergs government had more troubles than achievements. Massive cyber attacks and leaked 1, 2 million data is latest of troubles. As well as many significant issues like Rail Baltic and Air Baltic will be left to solve for the next government.

Meanwhile all the other coalition parties have faced significant drop in support. National Alliance (NA) and New Unity (JV) might just barely enter the parliament. Green Farmers (ZZS) one of the oldest parties in Latvia since 1917, might not made it all.

Instead the support is given for populist forces now. Sovereignty/New Latvians (SV/J) an alliance between Russian and Latvian populists is on the rise, as well as the Latvia First Party (LPV) a Slesherist party, that invented Trumpism before Trump. Ainārs Šlesers has been doing what Trump had been doing for almost 20 years, however always fell short of his ambitions. Slešers and Sovereigntists have many things in common – anti-Ukrainian sentiment, support for restoration ties with Russia and western scepticism.

Meanwhile the Progressives are are the “Black riders”, they still have large support base and most likely gain a lot of seats. While they are pro-western and pro-Ukraine, their ideological standings, and past deeds and misdeeds are making them polarizing force.

There is still a small possibility that centrist liberal Latvijas Attīstībai (LA), openly pro-Putinist Stability (ST!) and election reformists We Change the Rules (MNN) might enter Saeima with few seats,

Meanwhile for Harmony Center (SC) the leading Russian speaker party its seems hopeless to restore their past glory. The new nationalist party “The Dawning Sun” its these elections are just the beginning, for “Gobzems List” that has no Gobzems in the list as he is now is known as Arigo Toro who now resides in Spain, is a mere reminder of his past populist antics. For New Conservative Party (JKP) its seems all over. Another former coalition party has entered obscurity.

These elections might prove faithful or even fatal for Latvia. The old power structures will be shattered. Likely it will be a new era under Andrejs Kulbergs who will create coalition with Progressives and some of the remnants from the old coalition, to prevent the rise of pro-Russian populists. Such government however, will be very unstable as Progressives are capricious and unreliable partner and will also cause significant drop of support for Kulbergs and his party list. If not then its possible for Šlesers to establish a populist government with Sovereigntists making the first pro-Kremlin government in Latvia possible. Or Kulbergs might risk to add Slešers as partner if he cannot work with Progressives. A third, but very unlikely outcome would be Progressives and Sovereigntists would create a coalition. However, Progressive stances on Ukraine and Russia differ significantly. In either way the autumn will be very interesting and crucial for Latvia